November 2014. Jones Lang La Salle, a Real Estate specialised company, publishes the results of a study on retail in the US between now and 2018. A scenario that confirms some macro-trends on consumers (multi-channel, focus on fresh and healthy foods) and talks about a not devastating growth of the grocery e-commerce: a breath of fresh air for the "brick & mortar" which, however, can’t rest on their laurels.
SEGMENTATION
JLL segments the grocery channel in 9 format:
Traditional Supermarket: focused on grocery, with a number of references between 1500 and 6000 and about two million annual sales;
Fresh Format: emphasis on fresh and perishable, with an assortment focused on natural, organic and ethnic;
Limited Assortment: less than 2000 references, cool limited and low prices on grocery. This class includes the US champion Trader Joe's
Convenience stores: small stores and high margins. Selected range of products and strong service component
Wholesale Club: require a membership fee, business or individual. Wholesale prices and a very wide and deep assortment, that stands on 120.000 references.
Supercenters: hybrid with a wide range of food and non food items. Thegrocery is about 40% of the total area of the store.
Dollar Stores: Small size points of sale, with very aggressive prices.
Drug Stores: assortment focused on home and personal care, but also pharmaceuticals and seasonal.
E-commerce : Websites for the purchase of grocery and fresh products. Evolving methods of payment and delivery / collection of the goods.
SCENARIO
In 2018 the traditional supermarkets will lose market share at the expense of supercenter format and fresh. The numbers are grim: the market share will go down (over 37.2%) and there will be the closure of more than 500 stores. The opening/closures balance will still be positive due to the growth of other formats (mainly convenience and dollar store). The drivers of choice will be more and more fresh products (more than 75% of people interviewed chose the retailer in accordance with the offer of this section) and the price level, while online spending remains a loose cannon.
E-COMMERCE: TURNOVER UP AND ALWAYS MORE PLAYERS
E-commerce grows and grows, but will not upset the distribution scenario of the US retail market. At least in the short term. There are always more player sand more and more people pass the mistrust of the screen in order to buy on specialized sites for daily shopping, but physical experience will dominate the scene of the next years.
Amazon Fresh is a fact, testing the service in more and more countries (it is not expected to arrive in Italy shortly, somebody talk about of London as the first European test for the American giant, led by Jeff Bezos). The reflected light of the Amazon brand awareness lights a service that is already a reality in many countries: in Italy the home delivery is a growing reality in the range of services offered to the customer, but when when we talk about Amazon, we know, the issue is amplified. Just need to verify the quality of products sell by Amazon Fresh, especially fresh categories.
Shoprite and Peapod are gaining fame, with web sites easy to surf and intuitive, and a fairly wide assortment. The promise is: shopping anytime, anywhere. In common with the Amazon Fresh the green van for deliveries.
The share of the e-commerce market is growing, then, but not scary the traditional retailers. The estimate of JLL is 2.5% of market share in 2018, with a business still too marginal to create real concerns to giants like Wall-Mart or Costco. Enough, however, to induce them to improve their multi-channel strategy, the commercial service and the in store experience. Here there will be played the challenge of the coming years in the US retail , that has always been a precursor to what will happen in our country between 10-15 years.
